The lunar times

LAST MONTH IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA - September 2025

October 6, 2025
In this article, Ishiba Shigeru stepping down as Japanese Prime Minister, the celebration of the end of the Second World War in China and protest in Chongqing, North Korean relations and Lee Jae-myung's agenda as the South Korean President.

Japan

After much pressure from within and outside the party, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru resigned as president of the long-time ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 7 September 2025. This decision comes after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the July 22 Upper House election - the second major defeat after losing its majority in the Lower House in 2024, which left the LDP and its coalition partner Kōmeitō to rule in a minority government. Loss of trust due to the LDP’s handling of a funding scandal as well as rising costs of living are seen as major contributors to the election defeat.

The campaign for the election of the next party president was kicked off on September 22nd, with the vote scheduled for October 4th. The two candidates treated as the most hopeful, out of five competitors total, are Koizumi Shinjiro, son of former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, and Takaichi Sanae, a former internal affairs minister who intends to become the first female Japanese Prime Minister. However, it is not assured that the next LDP President will automatically attain the post of government leader, given the lack of majority in either chamber of Parliament.

Yet, the LDP has been out of government only two times since 1955, managing to recover quickly each time. As in the past, the fragmented opposition is unlikely to form a united front capable of wresting power from the LDP. The new party leader (and likely, Prime Minister) will nevertheless have to galvanize public support and deftly negotiate with the opposition to ensure a stable government and avoid a no-confidence vote. Given the challenges facing the struggling LDP - regaining public trust, bringing down inflation, handling the erratic behaviour of its most important alliance partner, the United States, and navigating an uncertain regional environment - such stability is urgently needed.

Update as of October 4th 2025
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has elected Takaichi Sanae as new party president. The right-wing politician and former internal affairs minister beat four other candidates, including her main rival, the moderate Koizumi Shinjiro, in the October 3rd elections. She is now positioned to become the next prime minister (PM) – and therefore the first woman to assume this post in Japan. Takaichi is widely expected to be formally approved as PM in the election by parliament, expected to take place on October 15 2025.

Prime minister Ishiba receiving a submission from then-chair of the LDP Investigation Committee, Takaichi Sanae (December 2024)
https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/103/actions/202412/11moushiire.html

China

The most high-profile event in China last month was without doubt the military parade in Beijing on September 3rd to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and the surrender of the Empire of Japan. Chinese president Xi Jinping presided over the commemorations, with Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un present in the assembly to show their support and the close ties that unite the three countries. In the West, the parade was interpreted as a warning and demonstration of strength with cutting-edge new military equipment, as well as a united front to reform and even overtake a Western-led world order.

China Victory Day Parade
Source: kremlin.ru on Wikipedia 
A few days earlier, a Chinese activist had staged a sophisticated protest in Chongqing, a major metropolis in Western China, using a projector to display anti-communist party and pro-democracy slogans at night in a busy university area. Qi Hong, the man behind the protest, had rented a hotel room and installed the projector at the window. When the police came to disable it 50 minutes after it had started, they were themselves filmed by a hidden camera. Qi Hong had left China with his family a week prior to the event. He handled it all remotely, posting the videos on social media and drawing significant public attention in what he deemed as much a protest as an artistic performance, using surveillance against the surveillance state itself.

North Korea

In his first visit to China in six years, early September 2025, Kim Jong Un emphasized his motivation to deepen the ties between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and China. Sino-North Korean relations had suffered some setbacks due to the military cooperation between the latter and Russia, a development that Kim aims to counteract.

The talks between Russia and North Korea included plans for long-term cooperation, with North Korea expressing its full support and assistance in the war against Ukraine. Until this point, North Korea has employed several thousand troops in Russia’s war.

The tightening of relations between Russia, China and North Korea is a signal of unity against the United States (US). After the Trump administration repeated its commitment to a complete denuclearization of North Korea, Kim Jong Un announced his country’s firm stance on national security through nuclear forces. The advancement of its nuclear capabilities and nuclear defence capacity is one of North Korea’s top priorities, and the most complex area in the diplomatic relations between North Korea and the rest of the world. Kim announced that he would be willing to meet with the US president – if the US drops its aspirations to denuclearize.

Juche Tower in North Korea
Source: Mike Bravo on Unsplash

South Korea

Regarding the deepening of relationships between North Korea, China and Russia and the tensions with the United States, President Lee Jae-myung has stressed that he aims to increase inter-Korean economic cooperation. He proposed several initiatives and asked for support from the international community, emphasizing that South Korea intends to respect North Korea’s system and has no hostile intentions towards its northern neighbour.

Towards the US, President Lee expressed concerns that the raid by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) of the Hyundai-LG electric vehicle battery plant construction site in Georgia could have a serious impact on the investment willingness of South Korean companies in the US. Seoul and Washington agreed to cooperate on a new type of Visa for South Koreans to avoid this case from happening again. However, the effects on the uncertainty over investment and business operations for South Korean companies remain to be seen.

Additionally, the South Korean cabinet confirmed plans to change the South Korean constitution in various areas. These include the possibility for South Korean Presidents to run for two four-year terms if re-elected immediately, instead of a single five-year term as was previously the case. The presidential election system would also switch from a single-round system to a two-round system. Finally, the amendment would enshrine the move of the “governmental capital” from Seoul to Sejong. South Korea has not amended its constitution since 1987, and the process requires a referendum with more than 50% in favour, as well as a two-thirds majority of the legislative body.

The National Assembly Building in South Korea

Article by the News Reporter staff of the Lunar Times

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